Economic Dashboard

Updated Jul 20, 2026 · 21:06
47MIXED
Composite health · custom blend

Overall reading

A transparent weighted blend of one lead indicator per category, each scored against its own history. Shown beside four independent, professionally built composites — trust those first; treat the dial as a summary, not an oracle.
-0.10
Chicago Fed Activity (CFNAI)
Real-economy momentum across 85 series. <-0.7 ≈ recession.
-0.54
Financial Conditions (NFCI)
>0 = tighter/stressed than average.
0.07
Sahm recession rule
>=0.5 triggers a recession warning.
0.39
Yield curve (10y–2y)
Negative = inverted = recession warning.

Master dial · category weights

Growth18%
Labor market18%
Inflation & prices15%
Rates & monetary6%
Financial conditions12%
Markets5%
Fiscal position4%
Consumer & household10%
Housing6%
Energy & commodities4%
Productivity2%

Growthweight 18%

Real GDP growth
2.1%
▲ 320.0%
Total output, annualized quarterly pace. ~2–3% is healthy.
Industrial production
1.1%
▲ 97.5%
Factory/mine/utility output vs a year ago.
Capacity utilization
76.1%
▬
How hard the economy is running. Very high = inflation pressure.

Labor marketweight 18%

Unemployment (U-3)
4.2%
▬
Headline jobless rate.
Underemployment (U-6)
7.9%
▬
Broad slack: adds discouraged + involuntary part-time.
Jobs added (monthly)
57k
▼ 55.8%
Net new nonfarm payroll jobs last month (thousands).
Prime-age employment
80.2%
▬
Share of 25–54 yr-olds employed. Strips out demographics.
Initial jobless claims
208k
▼ 8.4%
Weekly layoffs filing. Highest-frequency labor signal.
Quits rate
1.9%
▬
People quit when confident. A worker-confidence gauge.

Inflation & pricesweight 15%

Core PCE
3.4%
▲ 22.6%
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Target is 2%.
CPI (headline)
3.5%
▲ 45.7%
Best-known inflation measure.
Core CPI
2.6%
▬
CPI ex food & energy. Better trend signal.
Median CPI
2.1%
▼ 44.1%
Cleveland Fed's robust underlying-inflation measure.
Inflation expectations (10y)
2.2%
▬
What markets expect inflation to average. Keep it anchored.

Rates & monetaryweight 6%

Fed funds rate
3.63%
▬
The Fed's main policy lever.
10-yr Treasury
4.55%
▬
Benchmark for govt borrowing and mortgages.
Yield curve (10y–2y)
0.39 pp
▬
Negative = inverted = classic recession warning.
30-yr mortgage
6.55%
▬
The rate households actually feel.

Financial conditionsweight 12%

Financial conditions
-0.54
▬
Chicago Fed index. >0 = tighter/stressed than average.
High-yield spread
2.73%
▬
Extra yield on junk debt. Blowouts = stress.
Volatility (VIX)
18.8
▲ 11.9%
The market's fear gauge.

Marketsweight 5%

S&P 500
7,458
▲ 0.5%
Broad stock index. Sentiment/wealth — not the economy itself.
US dollar (broad)
120.5
▲ 1.0%
Trade-weighted dollar. Strong $ = cheap imports, harder exports.

Fiscal positionweight 4%

Federal debt / GDP
123%
▲ 1.7%
National debt as a share of the economy.

Consumer & householdweight 10%

Consumer sentiment
45
▼ 12.2%
U. Michigan survey of how households feel.
Retail sales
6.7%
▲ 67.9%
Consumer spending vs a year ago.
Savings rate
3.0%
▼ 21.1%
Share of income saved. Very low = stretched households.
Card delinquencies
2.9%
▬
Credit-card loans past due. Early household-stress signal.

Housingweight 6%

Housing starts
1,427k
▲ 3.5%
New homes broken ground (thousands, annualized).
Building permits
1,367k
▼ 2.3%
Leads starts — a forward housing signal.
Home prices (Case-Shiller)
0.8%
▼ 70.3%
National home prices vs a year ago.

Energy & commoditiesweight 4%

Gasoline (regular)
$3.85
▬
The most politically visible price in America.
Crude oil (WTI)
$79
▼ 13.5%
Energy input to nearly everything.
Copper
38%
▲ 1850.9%
'Dr. Copper' — leads the global industrial cycle.

Productivityweight 2%

Labor productivity
2.8%
▲ 42.3%
Output per hour. The long-run driver of living standards.
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