Economic Dashboard

Updated Oct 19, 2026 · 11:27
48MIXED
Composite health · custom blend

Overall reading

A transparent weighted blend of one lead indicator per category, each scored against its own history. Shown beside four independent, professionally built composites — trust those first; treat the dial as a summary, not an oracle.
-0.04
Chicago Fed Activity (CFNAI)
Real-economy momentum across 85 series. <-0.7 ≈ recession.
-0.50
Financial Conditions (NFCI)
>0 = tighter/stressed than average.
0.00
Sahm recession rule
>=0.5 triggers a recession warning.
0.35
Yield curve (10y–2y)
Negative = inverted = recession warning.

Master dial · category weights

Growth18%
Labor market18%
Inflation & prices15%
Rates & monetary6%
Financial conditions12%
Markets5%
Fiscal position4%
Consumer & household10%
Housing6%
Energy & commodities4%
Productivity2%

Growthweight 18%

Real GDP growth
2.2%
▬
Total output, annualized quarterly pace. ~2–3% is healthy.
Industrial production
2.2%
▲ 20.5%
Factory/mine/utility output vs a year ago.
Capacity utilization
76.9%
▲ 1.1%
How hard the economy is running. Very high = inflation pressure.

Labor marketweight 18%

Unemployment (U-3)
4.2%
▬
Headline jobless rate.
Underemployment (U-6)
7.6%
▼ 6.2%
Broad slack: adds discouraged + involuntary part-time.
Jobs added (monthly)
29k
▼ 78.2%
Net new nonfarm payroll jobs last month (thousands).
Prime-age employment
80.7%
▬
Share of 25–54 yr-olds employed. Strips out demographics.
Initial jobless claims
199k
▲ 0.5%
Weekly layoffs filing. Highest-frequency labor signal.
Quits rate
1.9%
▬
People quit when confident. A worker-confidence gauge.

Inflation & pricesweight 15%

Core PCE
3.0%
▬
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Target is 2%.
CPI (headline)
3.7%
▲ 26.5%
Best-known inflation measure.
Core CPI
2.6%
▼ 17.5%
CPI ex food & energy. Better trend signal.
Median CPI
2.8%
▲ 15.3%
Cleveland Fed's robust underlying-inflation measure.
Inflation expectations (10y)
2.4%
▬
What markets expect inflation to average. Keep it anchored.

Rates & monetaryweight 6%

Fed funds rate
3.75%
▬
The Fed's main policy lever.
10-yr Treasury
5.10%
▬
Benchmark for govt borrowing and mortgages.
Yield curve (10y–2y)
0.35 pp
▬
Negative = inverted = classic recession warning.
30-yr mortgage
7.40%
▲ 11.3%
The rate households actually feel.

Financial conditionsweight 12%

Financial conditions
-0.50
▬
Chicago Fed index. >0 = tighter/stressed than average.
High-yield spread
3.31%
▲ 23.5%
Extra yield on junk debt. Blowouts = stress.
Volatility (VIX)
20.0
▲ 35.0%
The market's fear gauge.

Marketsweight 5%

S&P 500
7,659
▬
Broad stock index. Sentiment/wealth — not the economy itself.
US dollar (broad)
121.6
▲ 2.9%
Trade-weighted dollar. Strong $ = cheap imports, harder exports.

Fiscal positionweight 4%

Federal debt / GDP
123%
▲ 1.7%
National debt as a share of the economy.

Consumer & householdweight 10%

Consumer sentiment
52
▼ 8.7%
U. Michigan survey of how households feel.
Retail sales
6.3%
▲ 70.4%
Consumer spending vs a year ago.
Savings rate
4.1%
▼ 22.6%
Share of income saved. Very low = stretched households.
Card delinquencies
2.9%
▬
Credit-card loans past due. Early household-stress signal.

Housingweight 6%

Housing starts
1,275k
▼ 1.2%
New homes broken ground (thousands, annualized).
Building permits
1,403k
▲ 4.2%
Leads starts — a forward housing signal.
Home prices (Case-Shiller)
1.9%
▬
National home prices vs a year ago.

Energy & commoditiesweight 4%

Gasoline (regular)
$4.33
▬
The most politically visible price in America.
Crude oil (WTI)
$102
▼ 1.7%
Energy input to nearly everything.
Copper
39%
▲ 840.5%
'Dr. Copper' — leads the global industrial cycle.

Productivityweight 2%

Labor productivity
2.2%
▬
Output per hour. The long-run driver of living standards.
—
—
—

Score over selected period

—